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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

However the current competition is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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