A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
